Friday, August 7, 2009

PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK(07-08-2009)

INDIAN MARKETS FALL SHARPLY YESTERDAY AND FIRST TIME IN LAST 4 WEEKS I CLEARLY I EXPRESSED MY DOUBTS ON RALLY IN THESE WORDS:-

"ALTHOUGH ALL WHOLE SCENE IS BULLISH BUT UPTREND CONFIRMATION IS MUST UNDER THE SHADOW OF SWINE FLU FEAR AND IT WILL COME WHEN NIFTY WILL SUSTAIN ABOVE 4720. AS PER MY VIEW THE RANGE OF 4630-4720 WILL DECIDE NEXT TREND AND POSITIONS SHOULD BE MADE ACCORDING TO THE BREAKING OUT POSSIBILITIES OF THIS RANGE"

GENUINE SELLING FORMATIONS WERE SEEN YESTERDAY AND LAST HOURS FALL WAS SO FAST THAT IT TRAPPED BUYERS AND DID NOT GIVE CHANCE TO SELL YESTERDAY. INDIAN MARKETS CLOSED YESTERDAY BELOW 5 DAYS LOWEST AND SHORT TERM CORRECTION HAS BEEN STARTED WITH YESTERDAY DOWN MOVE. ALTHOUGH MORE FALL EXPECTED IN COMING SESSIONS BUT HIGH VOLTALITY WILL BE SEEN.

AS GLOBAL MARKETS ARE ALSO WEAK TODAY THEREFORE WEAK OPENING,FIRSTLY RED ZONE TRADING AND HUGE VOLTALITY WILL BE SEEN. MARKETS MAY MOVE INTO POSITIVE AREA OR CLOSE ALSO IN GREEN BUT THAT WILL NOT MEAN AT PRESENT THAT UP MOVE HAS BEEN STARTED BECAUSE AFTER YESTERDAY GOOD SELLING MORE DOWN MOVES ARE CONFIRM.

RED OPENING AND RED CLOSING IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT SELLING SHOULD BE DONE AFTER FRESH SELLING FORMATIONS.


(LALIT KUMAR DHINGRA)

Thursday, August 6, 2009

PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK(06-08-2009)

ALL TRENDS ARE UP AND INDIAN MARKETS CLOSED NEAR DAY'S HIGH YESTERDAY AS WELL AS INDIAN MARKETS ARE NEAR THE TOP OF THIS RALLY. YESTERDAY INTRADAY CHARTS OF MANY STOCKS ARE ALSO SHOWING BUYING PATTERNS. INDIAN MARKETS ARE POISED FOR NEXT UPMOVES FUNDAMENTALLY,ECONOMICALLY AND TECHNICALLY BUT SWINE FLU NEWS IS SPREADING ALL OVER TODAY. THIS NEWS IS ON FRONT PAGE OF NEWS PAPERS TODAY AND NEWS CHANNELS ARE ALSO BROADCASTING ITS REPORTS TODAY THEREFORE IT IS DISTURBING BULLISH SENTIMENT. ITS IMPACT HAS TO BE UNDERSTOOD BECAUSE IF IT SPREADS IN INDIA THEN IT WILL HARM INDIAN ECONOMY AND STOCK MARKETS WILL ALSO SUFFER.

ASIAN MARKETS ARE MIXED AFTER US AND EUROPEAN MARKETS NEGATIVE CLOSING THEREFORE SENTIMENT IS WEAKER TODAY MORNING AND INDIAN MARKETS WILL BEGIN WITH RED OPENING. INDIAN MARKETS GOT VERY GOOD SUPPORT AT LOWER LEVELS YESTERDAY AND UNTIL NIFTY IS ABOVE 4530,INDIAN MARKETS'RALLY IS SAFE THEREFORE FOR PRECAUTION THIS LEVEL SHOULD BE WATCHED FOR TREND CONFIRMATION. ALTHOUGH ALL WHOLE SCENE IS BULLISH BUT UPTREND CONFIRMATION IS MUST UNDER THE SHADOW OF SWINE FLU FEAR AND IT WILL COME WHEN NIFTY WILL SUSTAIN ABOVE 4720. AS PER MY VIEW THE RANGE OF 4630-4720 WILL DECIDE NEXT TREND AND POSITIONS SHOULD BE MADE ACCORDING TO THE BREAKING OUT POSSIBILITIES OF THIS RANGE.

MARKETS WILL BE WATCHED FIRST AFTER WEAKER OPENING TODAY AND FINAL VIEW FOR TODAY CLOSING AND NEXT TREND WILL BE FORMED AFTER ANALYSISING FIRST 3 HOURS INTRADAY CHARTS. I NEVER LIKE TO GUESS AND WILL POST MY FINAL VIEW AFTER CONFIRMATION.


(LALIT KUMAR DHINGRA)

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK(05-08-2009)

ALL TRENDS ARE UP AND INDIAN MARKETS ARE AT THE HIGHEST LEVELS OF RALLY THEREFORE SENTIMENTS WAS HEATED AND PROFIT BOOKING AS WELL AS RED CLOSED WAS SEEN YESTERDAY ON THE BACK OF WEAKER GLOBAL CUES. IT HAS BEEN OBSERVED THAT MOMENTUM SLOWED DOWN IN ALMOST ALL THE GLOBAL MARKETS AND SAME FEATURE IS VISIBLE IN INDIAN MARKETS ALSO. NIFTY IS TRADING WITHIN THE RANGE OF 4600-4715 FOR THE LAST 3 SESSIONS. MIXED FORMATIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED FROM YESTERDAY INTRADAY CHARTS ANALYSIS AND MORE CONSOLIDATION REQUIRES TODAY FOR FURTHER UP MOVES. IMMEDIATE SUPPORTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:-

1- 4650
2- 4630
3- 4585
4- GAP BETWEEN 4570-4585

ONLY RESISTANCE RANGE IS:- 4690-4715


ALMOST ALL THE GLOBAL MARKETS ARE RANGE BOUND AND IT SEEMS THAT CONSOLIDATING FOR THE LAST FEW SESSIONS AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO BE SEEN IN THE INDIAN MARKETS AND AFTER CONSOLIDATION WILL BREAK OUT WITHIN NEXT COUPLE OF SESSIONS.

AS PER MY VIEW INDIAN MARKETS WILL OPEN AND TRADE FIRST TRADE WITHIN YESTERDAY TRADING RANGE(4650-4715) AND ITS BREAK OUT WILL GIVE NEXT MOVE CONFIRMATIONS. TODAY TRADING PATTERNS AND BREAK OUT OF YESTERDAY RANGE ARE MORE IMPORTANT THAN OPENING AND CLOSING. TRADING PATTERNS WILL GIVE INDICATIONS AND BREAK OUT OF YESTERDAY RANGE WILL GIVE CONFIRMATIONS OF NEXT MOVE. ALTHOUGH MIXED INTRADAY CHARTS FORMATIONS YESTERDAY BUT I AM EXPECTING CONSOLIDATION AND GREEN CLOSING TODAY AS WELL AS RALLY EITHER FROM TODAY OR TOMORROW. FOR PRECAUTION CONFIRMATION FROM YESTERDAY RANGE(4650-4715) BREAK OUT IS MUST.


(LALIT KUMAR DHINGRA)

Tuesday, August 4, 2009

PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK(04-08-2009)

MY MARKET OUTLOOKS ARE LIVE PROOF OF THIS FACT THAT I AM BULLISH ON INDIAN MARKET FROM 13-07-2009 WHEN NIFTY FORMED 3919. I AM TELLING AGAIN AND AGAIN FOR CROSSING 4693 AND NIFTY DONE IT YESTERDAY. ANYONE CAN EASILY VERIFY THAT ALMOST ALL MY INDIAN AND GLOBAL MARKETS PREDICTINS ARE PROOVING TRUE THEREFORE GO THROUGH CAREFULLY MY OUTLOOKS AND CERTAINLY WILL BE HELPFUL IN TRADING. NIFTY CORRECTION COMPLETED AFTER GAINING 774(4693-3919) POINTS. FOR SHORT TERM TRADING NIFTY TARGETS ARE AS FOLLOWS:-

1ST TARGET- 13.0% OF 774 IS= 101+4693=4794
2ND TARGET- 23.6% OF 774 IS= 183+4693=4876
3RD TARGET- 38.2% OF 774 IS= 296+4693=4989
4TH TARGET- 50.0% OF 774 IS= 387+4693=5080
5TH TARGET- 61.8% OF 774 IS= 401+4693=5094
6TH TARGET- 76.4% OF 774 IS= 591+4693=5284
7TH TARGET- 87.0% OF 774 IS= 673+4693=5366
8TH TARGET- 100.0% OF 774 IS= 774+4693=5467

ALL TRENDS ARE UP AND INDIAN MARKETS BROKEN OUT YESTERDAY AND SENTIMENT IS UPBEAT TODAY MORNING THEREFORE POSITIVE ZONE TRADING WILL BE SEEN BUT PROFIT BOOKING AND VOLTALITY IS EXPECTED TODAY. IF NIFTY DOES NOT SUSTAIN ABOVE 4790 WITHIN FIRST 15 MINUTES THEN SHARP INTRADAY CORRECTION MAY BE SEEN TODAY. TREND IS POSITIVE UPMOVES AND GREEN CLOSING IS EXPECTED TODAY BUT CONFIRMATION THROUGH FIRST 3 HOURS INTRADAY CHARTS ANALYSIS OR SUSTAINING ABOVE 4790 IS MUST FOR DETERMINING TODAY GREEN CLOSING.



(LALIT KUMAR DHINGRA)

Monday, August 3, 2009

PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK-(PART-1)(03-08-2009)

PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK-(PART-1)(03-08-2009)
PLEASE GO THROUGH FIRST PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK OF 27-07-2009 IN WHICH I PRESENTED BRIEF HISTORY OF POST 2001 RALLIES AND ITS CORRECTIONS AS WELL AS TARGETS OF THIS ON GOING BULL RALLY. I AM NON STOP TELLING FOR SLOW UP MOVES WITHIN THE RANGE OF 4525-4693 AND LAST STRONG RESISTANCE RANGE OF 4650-4693. NIFTY TRADED WITHIN LAST STRONG RESISTANCE RANGE LAST FRIDAY AND AFTER HECTIC VOLATILE MOVES CLOSED JUST BELOW IT AT 4,636.45. IT IS EXPECTED THAT NIFTY WILL TRADE WITHIN THE LAST STRONG RESISTANCE RANGE OF 4650-4693 IN THE COMING SESSIONS AND AFTER CROSSING 4693 FAST UPMOVES WILL BE SEEN. I GAVE THE MINIMUM TARGET OF 6359 ON 27-07-2009 AND RESISTANCES ZONES AS WELL AS FAST MOVEMENT ZONES OF THIS UP MOVE ARE PRESENTED IN THE FOLLOWING PICTURE. TRADING WITH THE HELP OF THESE MOVES WILL BE VERY MUCH HELPFUL FOR TRADERS:-

100% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF LAST CORRECTIVE WAVE HAS BEEN ALMOST COMPLETED AND 'ABC' CORRECTION OF ON GOING RALLY HAS ALSO BEEN COMPLETED. NEXT FAST UPMOVE WILL START AFTER SUSTAINING ABOVE THE 1ST WAVE HIGHEST OF 4693 AND IN THAT SITUATION NEXT FIBONACCI TARGET WILL BE 161.8% LEVEL AND IT IS ABOVE 6000.

5 WAVES WERE FORMED IN 2008 CORRECTION AND 5TH CORRECTIVE WAVE STARTED ON 12-08-2008 FROM 4650. IN THE ON GOING RALLY NIFTY MADE THE HIGHEST OF 4693 ON 12-06-2009. AFTER THE COMPLETION OF INTERMEDIATE TERM CORRECTION NIFTY IS TRADING AT PRESENT NEAR THE TOP OF 12-08-2008(4650) AS WELL AS NEAR THE TOP OF 12-06-2009(4693). AFTER SUSTAINING ABOVE 4693 NIFTY WILL NOT ONLY 100% RETRACE LAST CORRECTIVE WAVE BUT ALSO TRADE AT THE HEIGHTEST OF ON GOING RALLY AND IT WILL BE CONFIRMATION OF 3RD IMPULSIVE WAVE. IT WILL CLEARLY MEAN BEGINING OF FRESH BULLISH PHASE. INDICATORS IN THE FOLLOWING NIFTY WEEKLY CHART WILL CLEARIFY POSSIBILITIES OF NEXT RALLY:-

ANALYSIS FROM NIFTY WEEKLY CHART;-

1- WEEKLY CLOSING AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF ON GOING RALLY ON 31-07-2009. THUS GIVING UP TREND CONFIRMAION.
2- 3 CONSECUTIVE POSITIVE WEEKLY CLOSING AFTER COMPLETION OF INTERMEDIATE TERM CORRECTION. THUS GIVING UP TREND SIGNAL.
3- MACD- MACD LINE IS ABOVE AVERAGE LINE AND BOTH LINES ARE CLESRLY MOVING UPWARD. IN INTERMEDIATE CORRECTION MACD LINE GOT SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE LINE AND STARTED TO MOVE UP THEREFORE POSITIVE.
4- SLOW STOCHASTIC:- BOTH LINES ARE POSITIVE AND MOVING UPWARD IN POSITIVE ZONE ABOVE EQUALIBRIUM LINE AND NOT IN OVERBOUGHT ZONE THEREFORE POSITIVE.
5- ROC- MOVING DOWN BUT IN POSITIVE ZONE. ALTHOUGH NOT BULLISH BUT SUCH TYPE OF FORMATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER CORRECTIONS THEREFORE NOT NEGATIVE.
6- RSI- MOVING UPWARD IN POSITIVE ZONE AND NOT IN OVERBOIGHT ZONE THEREFORE POSITIVE.


7- WILLIAM % R- ALTHOUGH IN OVERBOUGHT ZONE BUT IT HAS CHARACTER OF REMAINING IN OVERBOUGHT ZONE FOR MANY MONTHS DURING BULL RALLY THEREFORE POSITIVE.

ALL TRENDS ARE POSITIVE AND INDIAN MARKETS ARE ALL SET FOR RALLY FROM HERE. AS INDIAN MARKETS HAVE TO CONSOLIDATE FOR CROSSING THEREFORE INDIAN MARKETS WILL TRADE FIRST WITHIN FRIDAY RANGE(4590-4670). AS GLOBAL CUES ARE LITTLE POSITIVE THEREFORE AFTER GREEN OPENING INDIAN MARKETS WILL CONSOLIDATE FIRST WITHIN FRIDAY RANGE AND CROSSING UPWARD OF THIS RANGE WILL GIVE ALMOST CONFIRMATION OF NEXT RALLY(FAST UP MOVE) FROM HERE. AS PER MY VIEW NIFTY WILL CROSS AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 4693 IN THE COMING SESSIONS. ALTHOUGH I AM EXPECTING GREEN CLOSING TODAY BUT FLAT CLOSING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LIGHT OF INDIAN MARKETS RANGE BOUND TRADING IN RESISTANCE ZONE. IT IS MY UNDERSTANDING BEFORE OPENING BUT MANY TIMES NEXT MOVE CONFIRMATION COMES IMMEDIATELY AFTER OPENING OR AFTER ANALYSISING 2/3 HOURS INTRADAY CHARTS. IF ANY CHANGE IN MY VIEW THEN I SHALL POST DURING TRADING HOURS. VIEW IS BULLISH AND GREEN OPENING AS WELL AS GREEN CLOSING POSSIBILITIES ARE MORE.


(LALIT KUMAR DHINGRA)