PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK-(PART-1)(03-08-2009)

PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK-(PART-1)(03-08-2009)
PLEASE GO THROUGH FIRST PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK OF 27-07-2009 IN WHICH I PRESENTED BRIEF HISTORY OF POST 2001 RALLIES AND ITS CORRECTIONS AS WELL AS TARGETS OF THIS ON GOING BULL RALLY. I AM NON STOP TELLING FOR SLOW UP MOVES WITHIN THE RANGE OF 4525-4693 AND LAST STRONG RESISTANCE RANGE OF 4650-4693. NIFTY TRADED WITHIN LAST STRONG RESISTANCE RANGE LAST FRIDAY AND AFTER HECTIC VOLATILE MOVES CLOSED JUST BELOW IT AT 4,636.45. IT IS EXPECTED THAT NIFTY WILL TRADE WITHIN THE LAST STRONG RESISTANCE RANGE OF 4650-4693 IN THE COMING SESSIONS AND AFTER CROSSING 4693 FAST UPMOVES WILL BE SEEN. I GAVE THE MINIMUM TARGET OF 6359 ON 27-07-2009 AND RESISTANCES ZONES AS WELL AS FAST MOVEMENT ZONES OF THIS UP MOVE ARE PRESENTED IN THE FOLLOWING PICTURE. TRADING WITH THE HELP OF THESE MOVES WILL BE VERY MUCH HELPFUL FOR TRADERS:-

100% FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT OF LAST CORRECTIVE WAVE HAS BEEN ALMOST COMPLETED AND 'ABC' CORRECTION OF ON GOING RALLY HAS ALSO BEEN COMPLETED. NEXT FAST UPMOVE WILL START AFTER SUSTAINING ABOVE THE 1ST WAVE HIGHEST OF 4693 AND IN THAT SITUATION NEXT FIBONACCI TARGET WILL BE 161.8% LEVEL AND IT IS ABOVE 6000.

5 WAVES WERE FORMED IN 2008 CORRECTION AND 5TH CORRECTIVE WAVE STARTED ON 12-08-2008 FROM 4650. IN THE ON GOING RALLY NIFTY MADE THE HIGHEST OF 4693 ON 12-06-2009. AFTER THE COMPLETION OF INTERMEDIATE TERM CORRECTION NIFTY IS TRADING AT PRESENT NEAR THE TOP OF 12-08-2008(4650) AS WELL AS NEAR THE TOP OF 12-06-2009(4693). AFTER SUSTAINING ABOVE 4693 NIFTY WILL NOT ONLY 100% RETRACE LAST CORRECTIVE WAVE BUT ALSO TRADE AT THE HEIGHTEST OF ON GOING RALLY AND IT WILL BE CONFIRMATION OF 3RD IMPULSIVE WAVE. IT WILL CLEARLY MEAN BEGINING OF FRESH BULLISH PHASE. INDICATORS IN THE FOLLOWING NIFTY WEEKLY CHART WILL CLEARIFY POSSIBILITIES OF NEXT RALLY:-

ANALYSIS FROM NIFTY WEEKLY CHART;-

1- WEEKLY CLOSING AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF ON GOING RALLY ON 31-07-2009. THUS GIVING UP TREND CONFIRMAION.
2- 3 CONSECUTIVE POSITIVE WEEKLY CLOSING AFTER COMPLETION OF INTERMEDIATE TERM CORRECTION. THUS GIVING UP TREND SIGNAL.
3- MACD- MACD LINE IS ABOVE AVERAGE LINE AND BOTH LINES ARE CLESRLY MOVING UPWARD. IN INTERMEDIATE CORRECTION MACD LINE GOT SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE LINE AND STARTED TO MOVE UP THEREFORE POSITIVE.
4- SLOW STOCHASTIC:- BOTH LINES ARE POSITIVE AND MOVING UPWARD IN POSITIVE ZONE ABOVE EQUALIBRIUM LINE AND NOT IN OVERBOUGHT ZONE THEREFORE POSITIVE.
5- ROC- MOVING DOWN BUT IN POSITIVE ZONE. ALTHOUGH NOT BULLISH BUT SUCH TYPE OF FORMATIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER CORRECTIONS THEREFORE NOT NEGATIVE.
6- RSI- MOVING UPWARD IN POSITIVE ZONE AND NOT IN OVERBOIGHT ZONE THEREFORE POSITIVE.


7- WILLIAM % R- ALTHOUGH IN OVERBOUGHT ZONE BUT IT HAS CHARACTER OF REMAINING IN OVERBOUGHT ZONE FOR MANY MONTHS DURING BULL RALLY THEREFORE POSITIVE.

ALL TRENDS ARE POSITIVE AND INDIAN MARKETS ARE ALL SET FOR RALLY FROM HERE. AS INDIAN MARKETS HAVE TO CONSOLIDATE FOR CROSSING THEREFORE INDIAN MARKETS WILL TRADE FIRST WITHIN FRIDAY RANGE(4590-4670). AS GLOBAL CUES ARE LITTLE POSITIVE THEREFORE AFTER GREEN OPENING INDIAN MARKETS WILL CONSOLIDATE FIRST WITHIN FRIDAY RANGE AND CROSSING UPWARD OF THIS RANGE WILL GIVE ALMOST CONFIRMATION OF NEXT RALLY(FAST UP MOVE) FROM HERE. AS PER MY VIEW NIFTY WILL CROSS AND SUSTAIN ABOVE 4693 IN THE COMING SESSIONS. ALTHOUGH I AM EXPECTING GREEN CLOSING TODAY BUT FLAT CLOSING IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LIGHT OF INDIAN MARKETS RANGE BOUND TRADING IN RESISTANCE ZONE. IT IS MY UNDERSTANDING BEFORE OPENING BUT MANY TIMES NEXT MOVE CONFIRMATION COMES IMMEDIATELY AFTER OPENING OR AFTER ANALYSISING 2/3 HOURS INTRADAY CHARTS. IF ANY CHANGE IN MY VIEW THEN I SHALL POST DURING TRADING HOURS. VIEW IS BULLISH AND GREEN OPENING AS WELL AS GREEN CLOSING POSSIBILITIES ARE MORE.


(LALIT KUMAR DHINGRA)