PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK(02-09-2009)

I CLEARLY TOLD YESTERDAY:-
"SHOWED GOOD SELLING FORMATIONS WITHIN THIS RANGE YESTERDAY THEREFORE DOWN SIDE BREAK OUT OF THIS RANGE WILL BE SEEN IN COMING SESSIONS"
"WILL FINALLY MOVE BELOW 4640 EITHER TODAY OR IN THE COMING SESSIONS"
"DOWN MOVES AND RED CLOSING WILL BE SEEN EITHER FROM TODAY OR FROM COMING SESSIONS"
I CONFIRMLY TOLD FOR DOWN MOVES YESTERDAY AND DOWN MOVES STARTED EXACTLY FROM YESTERDAY.SUPPORT AND FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LEVELS ARE CLEAR FROM FOLLOWING EOD CHART:-
http://lh6.ggpht.com/_MdLrfnym5uc/Sp2Em89huhI/AAAAAAAAARA/O_1hmw46ePE/s400/FIBONACCI%20LEVELS.png
IT IS CLEAR THAT DOWN MOVE STARTED AFTER TRIPPLE TOP FORMATION AND 5 DAYS NARROW RANGE MOVE THEREFORE IT IS POSSIBLE THAT INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND MAY TURN DOWN AND TEST 200 EMA(TODAY AT 3971) AS WELL AS MAY TOUCH PREVIOUS BOTTOM OF CORRECTION(3919). MAIN SUPPORTS OF JUST STARTED CORRECTION ARE AT:-
1- 4448(50 EMA)
2- 4353
3- 3919
4- 3792(38.2% CORRECTION OF WHOLE RALLY)
UNTIL NIFTY IS ABOVE 4353 INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND IS SAFE AND MOVING BELOW IT WILL MEAN MINIMUM 3 WEEKS TO 3 MONTHS LONG CORRECTION.MOST OF THE GLOBAL MARKETS WERE RANGE BOUND FOR THE LAST 5-6 TRADING SESSIONS AND CORRECTION BEGUN IN ALL OF THEM FROM YESSTERDAY THEREFORE AFTER GAP DOWN OPENING IF NIFTY SUSTAINS BELOW 4550 TODAY THEN IT WILL GIVE 100% CONFIRMATION TO INDIAN MARKETS DOWN TREND AND MORE DOWN MOVES WILL BE SEEN IN COMING SESSIONS.

INDICATORS POSITION IS CLEAR IN THE FOLLOWING PICTURE:-
http://lh4.ggpht.com/_MdLrfnym5uc/Sp2FOoiYmVI/AAAAAAAAARI/7bOihtihJIY/s400/INDICATORS.png
1- MACD- MACD LINE IS LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE LINE AND ALSO A LITTLE ABOVE 0 LINE. THIS INDICATOR WILL GIVE CONFIRMATION OF DOWNTREND TREND AFTER TODAY DOWN MOVE BECAUSE IN THAT SITUATION MACD LINE WILL INTERSECT DOWNWARD AVERAGE LINE.
2- STOCHASTICS- STARTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM OVERBOUGHT ZONE THEREFORE CONFIRMING SHORT TERM WEAKNESS.
3- ROC AND RSI- BOTH LINES ARE LITTLE ABOVE EQALIBRIUM LINE AND SHOWING DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS MOVING DOWNWARD THEREFORE CONFIRMING WEAKNESS.
4- WILLIAM %R- STARTED TO MOVE DOWN FROM OVERBOUGHT ZONE THEREFORE CONFIRMING SHORT TERM WEAKNESS.
INDICATORS ARE SHOWING LACK OF STRENGTH IN ONGOING BULLISH MOVE AND IF NIFTY SUSTAINS AND CLOSE BELOW 4550 TODAY THEN DOWN MOVE WILL CONFIRM AND NIFTY WILL TEST MENTIONED SUPPORT LEVELS.
AFTER WEAK OPENING CONFIRMATION FOR FRESH DOWN MOVE IS MUST EITHER THROUGH FRESH SELLING PATTERNS TODAY OR SUSTAINING BELOW 4550. IF NIFTY SUSTAINS AND CLOSE BELOW 4550 THEN MORE DOWN MOVES,TESTING OF MENTIONED SUPPORTS AND TODAY RED CLOSING WILL BE SEEN.
(LALIT KUMAR DHINGRA)