PRE-OPEN MARKET OUTLOOK(17-03-2009)

LONG TERM AND INTERMEDIATE TERM TRENDS ARE DOWN AND SHORT TERM TREND IS UP. INDIAN MARKETS ARE RANGE BOUND AND MOVING UP ON VARIOUS POSITIVE TRIGGERS.IN THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY MOVED UP AFTER INTERIM BUDGET TRIGGER AND IN THIS MONTHS MOVED UP BULLISH MARKETS TRIGGER.AS AFTER ASIAN MARKETS IN GENERAL GOOD CLOSING EUROPEAN MARKETS OPENED AND TRADING ABOVE 2% THEREFORE INDIAN MARKETS ALSO CLOSED +2% YESTERDAY. AT THIS MOMENT INDIAN MARKETS COMPLETELY IGNORED THE POSSIBILITIES OF WORSENING YEARLY RESULTS IN APRIL AND THIRD FRONT LED UNTION GOVT.BECAUSE GLOBAL MARKETS WERE BLASTING BUT WHEN THIS BULLISHNESS WILL WIPE OUT THEN INDIAN MARKETS WILL RESPOND THESE DISAPPOINTING POSSIBILITIES THROUGH DOWN MOVES.NEXT RESISTANCES ARE AS FOLLOWS AND I AM EXPECTING THAT IN PRESENT PULL BACK RALLY THESE WILL NOT BE CROSSED:-

1- 2840-2860
2- 2900-2970
3- 3120-3152

YESTERDAY NIFTY INTRADAY CHARTS SUGGESTING SHORT COVERING PATTEN BUT AFTER THIS RALLY SUFFICIENT SELLING PATTERNS REQUIRE FOR THE BEGINING OF DOWN MOVE.THIS RALLY IS ON THE BACK OF STRONG GLOBAL RALLY.INDIA MAY BE OUTPERFORMER OR UNDERPERFORMER BUT FOR ANY DOWN MOVE IN INDIAN MARKETS SOME DOWN MOVE SHOULD ALSO BE SEEN IN GLOBAL MARKETS. INDIAN MARKETS WILL BEHAVE ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MARKETS AND ASIAN MARKETS ARE SIDEWAYS AFTER DOW JONES FLAT CLOSING.ASIAN MARKETS ARE PREPARING FOR NEXT MOVE WITH RANGE BOUND TRADING AND ON THE SAME LINES INDIAN MARKET WILL ALSO TRADE IN NARROW RANGE FIRST AFTER FLAT OPENING.ALTHOUGH UPMOVES FROM HERE IS NOT EXPECTED BUT FIRST TWO HOURS RANGE BREAK OUT WILL DECIDE NEXT MOVE OF INDIAN MARKETS.

AFTER FLAT TO POSITIVE OPENING AND FIRST TWO HOURS NARROW RANGE TRADING DOWN MOVES AND RED CLOSING IS EXPECTED TODAY.


(LALIT KUMAR DHINGRA)